Levelized cost of electricity (LCOE) is useful for initial technology screening, but it does not fully represent the cost or value of delivering comparable electricity-system services. This study develops a risk-informed full-system screening framework for Iranian electricity pathways and applies it to the four-unit Iran Hormoz Nuclear Power Project (IHNPP). The framework distinguishes annual-energy equivalence from system-service equivalence, separates bankable project cash flow from wider national economic value, and incorporates project-specific delivery risk without claiming a chronological power-system optimization.
IHNPP comprises four nominal 1,255-MWe units with 5,020 MWe of gross capacity. Under a 93% production factor and 10% internal electricity consumption, annual generation is 40.90 TWh gross and 36.81 TWh net. Matching this net annual output requires approximately 6.00 GW of CCGT at a 70% net capacity factor, 14.01 GW of onshore wind at 30%, or 18.27 GW of solar PV at 23%. Sensitivity over an IHNPP production-factor range of 85–95% changes net generation from 33.64 to 37.60 TWh/y.
The economic screening adopts a total CAPEX of USD 25.0 billion, equivalent to approximately USD 4,980/kW gross, with annual OPEX and overhaul expenditure of USD 441.70 million. At USD 0.05/kWh, annual electricity-sale revenue is approximately USD 1.84 billion. Deterministic sensitivity tests examine CAPEX, tariff, production factor, financing conditions, and construction delay. The project register contains 309 risks, of which 73 (23.6%) are Super Critical or High; financial and economic risks account for 35.6% of this priority subset.
The results indicate that technology ranking cannot be inferred from LCOE or annual energy alone. For IHNPP, economic performance remains strongly conditioned by financing, project delivery, contractual arrangements, and grid integration.